The Amazon rainforest is nearing an irreversible ecological tipping point, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the global climate, water systems, and biodiversity.
That is the urgent message from the Executive Director of the Frankfurt Zoological Society, Dr Christof Schenck, who joined the latest episode of United for Biodiversity, the Alliance podcast.
According to Dr Schenck, the Amazon rainforest plays a critical role in regulating rainfall and climate. He explained that the forest produces “about 20 to 30 per cent of the rain… inside the system itself,” through a process of evaporation that scientists refer to as the “rivers to the sky.”
What would happen if the planet had no rainforests?
Besides acting as habitat for vital organisms, rainforests act like giant pumps, drawing water up from the ground and releasing it into the atmosphere.
Without this process, rainfall would decrease, causing severe droughts.
“So if the rainforest is cut down and then rain falls not on the original ecosystem and the rainforest itself, but on the soil, then it is going away,” he said. “So, we are cutting the rivers to the sky… and the amount of that water in evaporation is incredible.”
He noted that the scale of evaporation from the forest canopy is nearly equal to the volume of the Amazon River itself, and its disruption would negatively impact ecosystems far beyond the region.
“Computer model says when we lose more than 20 to 25 per cent of the rainforest… the rainforest will start to die by itself,” he warned. “No chainsaw, no fire is needed to destroy the forest. The forest will change into a savannah landscape.”
Such a transformation would result in the release of billions of tonnes of carbon emissions, accelerating global warming and impacting regions as far away as North America.
“There will not be a single point on earth that will not be affected by this tipping point,” he warned.
17% of the world’s forests are already lost
Even more alarming, Dr Schenck said that current estimates show that “We are already at 17 per cent of forest loss… and 20 to 25 per cent, this tipping point can start, and nobody on earth can stop it.”
He stated that the cost of inaction is beyond calculation.
“If this tipping point starts… we turn off the biggest air conditioning system on earth.”
In addition to climate effects, biodiversity loss would impact medicine and research.
“70 per cent of our medical medicaments are originating from nature… the Amazon is one of the richest biodiversity areas on earth,” he said, estimating that while only two million species have been identified, as many as 10 million may exist.
Protected areas, he said, remain a critical part of the solution, stating that, “They are super important and super effective.”
Dr. Schenck emphasised that, “They are somehow the backbone of biodiversity protection in the Amazon… they protect the climate… the water cycles, the carbon, everything that is important.”
However, he noted that protected areas alone won’t be enough.
“We need a much more sustainable land use, and these two together can save us from the collapse of the system,” Dr. Schenck said before he highlighted the importance of financing for conservation efforts.
“We need more funding and we need different funding,” he said, pointing to mechanisms like the Legacy Landscape Fund and the Tropical Forever Fund.
He further stressed the need for innovation in conservation economics, such as biodiversity credits. “There are common goods now that nobody pays for… with biodiversity credits we can allocate resources… and that could also be an innovative funding instrument.”
Calling for greater responsibility from the global north and east, he said that “they are emitting most of the carbon load… and also contributing to the destruction of the tropical rainforest. So we have a responsibility here. We have a bill to pay now. And now it’s time to pay.”
Speaking on the global 30×30 biodiversity target, Dr Schenck said the world is off track by miles.
Despite these challenges, he commended Guyana’s leadership on biodiversity.
“Guyana has an incredible responsibility… but also an opportunity,” he said.
